TRUMP: a preocupação do México

Em 2011, o pré-candidato republicano à presidência Herman Cain causou um grande susto ao sul do Rio Grande ao propor a construção de uma cerca elétrica na fronteira com o México — como era de se esperar. Os padres, a imprensa e um ex-presidente manifestaram sua indignação. Cain rapidamente se retratou, alegando que era brincadeira: — O plano não tem nada de sério. Os EUA precisam de um pouco de humor. Era só uma piada, tá? Essa atitude reflete bem o vai-não-vai que definiu a relação entre mexicanos e norte-americanos durante décadas. Sabia-se que, de vez em quando, um político atacaria o México, mas havia um limite: se a crítica fosse muito feroz, as vozes certas se levantariam e o sujeito teria que se retratar. Isso até surgir Donald Trump, que deu o pontapé inicial na própria campanha com a frase terrível: "São estupradores". O ministério das Relações Exteriores mexicano o denunciou por "preconceito, racismo e total ignorância", enquanto as maiores empresas do país o boicotaram. Mas ele insistiu. Seu bordão – "Vamos construir um muro; e quem vai pagar?" – leva seus correligionários à loucura. Normalmente os canais de TV mexicanos mostram pouca coisa sobre as primárias norte-americanas, mas neste ano a corrida presidencial americana já vêm recebendo cobertura quase diária. Horrorizados, os telespectadores veem o rosto vermelho e o olhar malicioso que os insulta de Michigan ao Mississippi – e sendo ovacionado por uma multidão. Alguns aqui pedem calma, alegando que a melhor maneira de lidar com a truculência é ignorá-la. Outros dizem que é perigoso manter silêncio face à intolerância e o incitamento, principalmente quando a linguagem inconsequente se traduz em violência — como quando os seguidores de Trump bateram em um hispânico em Boston, em agosto passado. O posicionamento linha-dura de Trump e o espectro de sua provável nomeação criaram um verdadeiro desafio na política externa para o atual líder da nação, Enrique Peña Nieto. Geralmente o presidente em exercício evita comentar as eleições norte-americanas por medo de acabar do lado errado da disputa. Mas, com a angústia crescendo a cada dia, ficou politicamente difícil para Peña Nieto manter o silêncio. Assim, em uma série de entrevistas realizadas neste mês, ele finalmente abordou o tema – e não se conteve, comparando inclusive Trump aos fascistas. — Foi assim que Mussolini subiu ao poder, foi assim que Hitler subiu ao poder, tirando vantagem de uma situação, um problema — desabafou ele ao jornal “Excelsior”. Suas palavras causaram furor na imprensa norte-americana, mas nada disso afetou o desempenho de Trump nas pesquisas, nem o fizeram se retratar. Dias depois, o candidato, quando perguntado se declararia guerra ao México para fazer o país pagar pelo muro, respondeu: "Depois que eu renovar o nosso Exército, o México não vai brincar mais com essa história de guerra." Agora, políticos e analistas mexicanos discutem como lidar com Trump. Para o país, já não é mais questão de orgulho ou de correção política — mas sim de manter uma relação de trabalho decente entre duas nações que dividem uma das fronteiras mais longas do mundo, como também um volume de negócios e um fluxo de imigrantes altíssimos (há onze milhões de cidadãos mexicanos nos EUA e 22 milhões de norte-americanos de ascendências mexicana). O México pode se livrar dos ataques de Trump se ele garantir a nomeação e mudar o tom radicalmente para conquistar o público nas eleições gerais. Mas, sendo imprevisível como é, não há garantias. O que quer que aconteça, talvez o trumpismo já tenha mudados as regras da retórica política norte-americana em relação ao vizinho. Outros podem ver seu sucesso como permissão para criticar o México e seus imigrantes, seja em comícios ou mesmo no Congresso. Foi uma luta árdua para eliminar o preconceito anti-hispânico do discurso político dos EUA e pode ser ainda mais difícil tentar colocar o gênio de volta na garrafa. O trumpismo também pode ter um efeito tóxico fora dos corredores do poder, ou seja, nas ruas. Quando Trump era apenas um intruso fanfarrão, era mais fácil para os mexicanos ignorarem suas provocações, contra-atacando com seus próprios comentários bem-humorados, como se metessem o pau em uma piñata feita à imagem do magnata de cabelo e pele laranja – mas agora, como favorito à nomeação, não dá mais para rir. Os golpes machucam. Embora a opinião do México em relação aos EUA seja complicada, os americanos, sem dúvida, são vistos de forma positiva por aqui – afinal, somos o país que recebe mexicanos em maior número (25 milhões/ano) e certamente abriga a maior comunidade de expatriados. Porém, com Trump revelando um sentimento xenófobo compartilhado por milhões, essa visão otimista pode acabar afetada e assim permanecer por muito tempo depois das eleições. Aqueles que aplaudem nos comícios deveriam se lembrar de que a xenofobia e o ódio são uma rua de mão dupla.

Habits of critical thinkers

Successful executives use critical thinking skills every day, to sift through incomplete and complex information, ask the right questions, recognize strong versus weak arguments, and to assimilate the information they need to make logical business decisions. Today’s rapidly changing business environment allows no time for poor decision making. If not quickly recognized before too much investment is made, a poor decision can hinder a corporation’s chances for success in quarterly results and throw a monkey wrench in the opportunity for timely intervention in fast-moving markets. Although the consequences of poor critical thinking increase exponentially for higher-level positions in a company, critical thinking is not just the province of executives. Employees at all levels make decisions that affect their level of productivity and the efficient use of resources. When the maintenance mechanic has the critical thinking skills to problem solve effectively, he can get a piece of equipment back in working order more quickly, thereby enhancing productivity. A sales representative with good critical thinking skills will ask the right questions of her customers so she can best meet their specific needs and create successful, long-term relationships. 8 Habits of Stellar Critical Thinkers The best critical thinkers practice eight particular habits when processing information, solving problems, and reaching decisions: Habit #1: They are more concerned about getting it right than about being right. They can put aside their egos to recognize that they do not need to have all the answers. They are willing to admit to not knowing something or to making mistakes. They know the importance of asking questions and seeking out the best available information. Habit #2: They avoid jumping to conclusions and rushing to judgment. They take time to gather as much information as possible to better understand a complex situation before taking action. They recognize that the consequences of some decisions are more important than others and these decisions require more scrutiny. Habit #3: They do not accept information at face value. They ask questions to discover what is behind the data. They recognize that it is important not only to confirm that the facts are correct but also to understand that information can be presented in a way designed to support a particular agenda. Similarly, they know to inquire about information that may have been left out because it does not lend support to a particular position. Habit #4: They avoid over-analysis that leads to paralysis in decision-making. They seek clarity by looking for order or patterns in the data while avoiding the trap of forcing information to fit a particular need. By looking at both the forest (the big picture) and the trees (the details) they have a sense of when they have enough information to make a decision. They know that they will never have all the information they might like but are confident that once they have explored the available information fully and objectively, they will likely make sound decisions. Habit #5: They are continuous learners and work to stay well-informed. They are inquisitive about a wide range of topics and issues, making a regular effort to read and to educate themselves, gathering information that may be important for making decisions now and in the future. Habit #6: They show flexibility in their willingness to consider alternative ideas and opinions. They seek to understand the perspective of a potential customer or even a competitor. This ability to see more than one side of an issue allows them to position their approach more effectively and reflects their confidence in their ability to reason. Habit #7: They use critical thinking on themselves. They can explain how they arrived at a conclusion, allowing others to follow their reasoning and understand their thinking. Through self-examination and sensitivity to their own biases, they ask themselves questions such as: “Do I have all the necessary information? If my conclusions are true, what are the likely implications?” They are willing to change their views when they are provided with more information that allows greater understanding. Habit #8: They have a distinctive behavioral style. They are confident but not cocky, reflective yet able to take action, and decisive while showing reasonable analysis. They can demonstrate patience when the stakes are high and the issues are not black-and-white. They read more than the average person and communicate their ideas clearly. They can think independently but place value on different perspectives. They accept responsibility when things go wrong and seek to understand what happened so they can learn from their mistakes. Critical thinking skills cannot be developed overnight. Nonetheless, practicing these eight habits described here will improve one’s critical thinking ability. As individuals become more successful in using good critical thinking in their everyday decision making, their companies will be more successful in meeting the challenges of continuously changing expectations of customers and markets.

The US presidential election. Trump: the nightmare of US and Mx bilateral trading

The first 100 days of a president are often used as a measure of accomplishment. They are also supposed to be a honeymoon, or a period in which the newly appointed president has a high political capital to implement policies. Trump is still far from becoming president and his volatile character makes it hard to know what he would do should he ever make it to the White House; however, some of his pledged policies towards Mexico provide a motive to analyze the implications for the U.S.-Mexico economic relation. More than trying to make any prediction (actually, most of Trump policies are not legally possible), this article intends to show several facts on the strength of the relationship between Mexico and the U.S. The close ties that these countries share make impossible to imagine the consequences of Trump’s policies. More than a honeymoon, Trump’s 100 first days would be a nightmare. It will take less than that for both countries to witness sharp declines in economic growth. Mexico is not paying for the wall. It simply will not. Trump has affirmed that if the country denies, he will increase tariffs on Mexican exports and charge fees on remittances sent by Mexican workers. If that ever happens, it is not hard to assume retaliatory tariffs from Mexico. Then, trade would be the immediate mechanism that would affect both countries in a considerable way. The border between Mexico and the U.S. is one of the busiest in the world, where $1.3 billion in goods where exchanged every day in January 2016 ($40.5 billion in the month). In 2015, Mexico and U.S. traded $531 billion, similar to the size of Argentina’s GDP. That means that every year, the two countries trade an amount of goods worth the value of all final goods and services produced in Argentina. The effect of a sudden and sharp increase in tariffs for Mexican products is more intuitive. This would probably immerse Mexico in the deepest recession ever seen. International commerce would simply implode. In its open economy, trade flow represented 70% of its GDP in 2015. Only exports to the U.S. constituted 71% of total exports and 24.7% of Mexico’s GDP the same year. The Mexican economy is also highly dependent on foreign direct investment (FDI) coming from the U.S. During 2015, Mexico received $28.4 billion in FDI. Around 53% came from the United States, most of which was invested in the manufacturing industry. Without the preferential access to the U.S., companies would have fewer incentives to open factories in Mexico. Car manufacturers would leave and the country would witness a considerable disinvestment in many sectors. The deterioration of the economy would also trigger a departure of portfolio investments. Around 35% of local denominated governmental bonds, equivalent to more than $115 billion, are in the hands of foreigners. This is a higher share than other emerging markets such as Hungary (16%), Malaysia (25%) or Brazil (19%). The sudden selloff the Mexican peso would cause a sharp depreciation of the currency. The central bank, Banxico, would be forced to intervene selling reserves and increasing the interest rate significantly. This would weaken economic growth even more. Trump’s planed fees on remittances would end asphyxiating the inflows of USDs to Mexico. Remittances became the second largest contributor of dollar inflows to Mexico after FDI. The money sent by Mexican workers in the US to their homes in 2015 reached $24.8 billion, which, for the first time, was larger than the $23.4 billion of Mexican oil exports. What Trump and his supporters do not realize is the impact that the Mexican collapse would have in U.S. Again, trade would be the where the contagion starts; Mexico is the second largest importer and exporter of goods for the U.S. In Figure one, it is possible to see the share that Mexico represents for US imports and exports by state. In terms of exports, Mexico is the main destination of products from California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. For other 26 states, Mexico is the second largest importer. New Mexico (44%), Arizona (40%), Texas (37%) and South Dakota (28%) are the states that sent in 2015 a larger share of their exports to the southern neighbor. Mexico buys nine times what China buys from Texas, an equivalent to 5.7% of Texas’ GDP every year—Texas has the second largest economy in the U.S. Mexico displaced Canada as the second largest supplier of goods to the U.S. last year. It sends around $24 billion every month. Here, Arizona (39%), Michigan (35%), Texas (33%), New Mexico (28%) and Utah (28%) are the states that bought in 2015 a larger share of their imports from Mexico. In the case of imports, 13 states have Mexico as its first or second largest partner; however, the importance of Mexico in some cases is striking. Michigan buys from Mexico an equivalent to 9.5% of its GDP every year. Practically all of it related to the auto industry. One might be inclined to think that a decrease in exports to Mexico would hit the U.S. economy harder than a decrease in imports. This might not be the case for many states. Higher tariffs for Mexican products would not only cause inflation in the tomatoes that U.S. imports, it will affect the sophisticated intra industry trade that exists between the two countries. Mexico and the U.S. make millions of products together. Supply chains are deeply integrated. Take cars for instance, which explain most of the trade that Mexico has with the Midwest. It all starts with energy. Mexico doubled in the last three years the import capacity of natural gas from the U.S., reaching around 4bcf/d in 2015. With the Ramones pipeline and other projects that the Mexican government is currently building, Mexico will import around 11bcf/d by 2018. Most of the natural gas comes from Texas and it is being used to manufacture seats and engines in Mexico that are sent to Michigan, Missouri, Kentucky and South Dakota. To this states, Mexico also sends crude oil, so US companies can built on the parts sent from Mexico and return them, so cars can be ensemble in Silao, Mexico. With more expensive products coming from Mexico, or without Mexican products at all, U.S. manufacturers would lose competitiveness or have a hard time to produce their final goods. Only the states at the border, plus Iowa, Missouri and Michigan, which have closer ties with Mexico as importers and exporters, represent 30% of U.S. GDP. A deep recession in these states would drag the U.S. economy, which has not been able to consolidate its recovery from 2008 financial crisis. Trump’s wall and tariffs would blow him in the face within his first 100 days.